Islamic State after ISIS

Trump's policies are set to destroy ISIS for good in Syria and Iraq. But the Islamic State is set to remain in the Middle-East.

ISIS and the Islamic State are one and the same organisation - the difference is in the wording. ISIS is the 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria', which Trump has vowed to completely destroy. Because Assad will remain; because Trump will push up Iraq's oil exports to stabilize the country, the only place in which the Islamic State will be able to expand in the immediate future is Saudi Arabia.

The northern tribes of Saudi Arabia are, unfortunately, the same as those in eastern Syria and western Iraq, the base of support for the Islamic State. This is where the Islamic State is likely to begin its expansion.

But it will not end there. As well as northern Saudi Arabia, the Islamic State will be able to expand into the east, Al-Ahsa, where the Saudi Shi'ites are. The Islamic State would likely unleash an anger - a collective anger of the Sunni Muslims at the Shi'ites who defeated them in Syria and Iraq - unleash an anger directed at the Saudi Shi'ites and resulting in a tearing of the fabric in the eastern province.

Such violence would, eventually, spill into Kuwait and Bahrain as well. The results are likely genocide and mass emigration by the Shi'ites from the Gulf.

As well as the northern and eastern provinces, the Islamic State is likely to make its way into the region of Najd, the central region of the Islamic State's ideology. Here the battle will be most bitterly fought between two sides who believe they better reflect the doctrines of Ibn Abdul Wahhab. Qaseem would likely fall to the Islamic State; Riyadh might fall, but that is harder to know for sure.

Should Mohammed Bin Salman remain the dominant figure of Saudi Arabia, Islamic State will be able to win over many of the tribes in Saudi Arabia and cause the Saud royal family to be living in existential crisis.

Should Mohammed Bin Nayef become more dominant than his cousin, there is a chance the Saudi kingdom would survive. While there are those who hate the Saudi government, Islamic State controlling Mecca and Medina is a very bad idea for the world.

The only feasible way someone like Mohammed Bin Nayef could save the kingdom of Saudi Arabia would be to ally with the lesser of two evils - namely, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen. One almost wonders if that was the reason for King Salman waging the Yemen War in the first place: to train up the Saudi military and to stretch out a hand in alliance with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in the face of the Islamic State.

While Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula gaining dominance in Saudi Arabia is a threat to the kingdom, it is nowhere near as potent a threat as that of the Islamic State. Al-Qaeda, while condemning the Saud royal family, has on more than one occasion opened its hand in alliance with the kingdom, most notably during the Iraq-Kuwait War on 1990, in which Saudi Arabia rejected an alliance with Al-Qaeda in favour of the Americans.

Such alliance is Saudi Arabia's hope. After victory over the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula would return Saudi Arabia to a sort of Islamic legitimacy, forcing the kingdom to cleanse itself of several policies which undermine it as bearer of the two holy mosques of Mecca and Medina. Those policies include breaking their previous alliance with America and Israel, as well as a focus on defeating America and Israel over and above the current focus on defeating Iran, something the Islamic State and Saudi Arabia currently share in common.

In the mean time, before a Saudi-Al-Qaeda victory over Islamic State could be achieved, it is to be expected that many of the smaller Gulf kingdoms would be destroyed by the Islamic State. These include Kuwait and Bahrain, previously mentioned; these also include Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai is located.

The Islamic State re-declaring itself as a Caliphate from its capital in Dubai is a frightening and distinct possibility.

The best thing President-elect Donald Trump could do in the face of such a conflict is minimize its impact on the rest of the Middle-East. Making Iraq one of America's top Arab allies is a step in the right direction - should the Trump Administration stabilize and wholeheartedly ally with Iraq, the Islamic State would be unable to expand back into its previous support network.

The other way Trump could minimize its impact on the rest of the Middle-East would be to minimize ties with Saudi Arabia, as he seems keen to do. The other way would be to withdraw support for Saudi's war on Yemen and even withdraw from bombing Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is going to need Al-Qaeda's help to defeat the Islamic State.

Staying neutral in the Saudi war is essential for Trump's withdrawal policies from the Middle-East to succeed. Should he get sucked into that conflict, it would only be exacerbated and increase the likelihood of the Saudi government falling.