Tuesday 4 December 2018

Why Mohammed Bin Salman and Congress are destined for a collision course



Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, has lost the support of the US Congress.

The straw which broke the camel's back was the murdering of Khasoggi, a pro-Muslim Brotherhood journalist in Istanbul - who also happened to be an American citizen. It is the Congress' response to the murder of an American citizen that Bin Salman failed to factor in to his plan of assassination: now Bin Salman's whole vision for Saudi Arabia is under threat.

For some who watch the Middle-East, the removal of the current Crown Prince would come as a welcome a relief. However, the damage has already been done. With his political rivals locked up at home and his father very elderly, Mohammed Bin Salman's ouster at this time is more likely to exacerbate instability in the Middle-East than calm it.

It is this that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a champion support for Mohammed Bin Salman, fears, though - as with previous Israeli support for conflicts in Iraq and Syria - it must be pointed out that Israel sanctioned these policies with short-sighted thinking that has only served to strengthen regional adversary Iran rather than weaken her.

Should economic pressure be measured against Saudi Arabia to cause the resignation of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, Mohammed Bin Nayyef, the previous Crown Prince, is the most likely candidate to replace him. However, what is concerning is that King Salman himself might resign should his son be forced to do so. Mohammed Bin Salman has often been seen as the "go to" to make deals with King Salman.

More worryingly still: Mohammed Bin Salman may not leave Saudi Arabia without a fight. Should that occur, Saudi Arabia will explode same as Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan before her, but instead extremist groups will be within sight of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

At this stage, Congress' condemnation of Crown Prince Salman will destine them for a collision course between American and Saudi foreign policy - but this collision may result in the mother of all conflicts for the heart of the Middle-East.