It is no secret that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump want a thaw in relations between their countries. Should Donald Trump be reelected, Cold War with China would ensue and a trade deal with Russia would be reached.
The Covid-19 pandemic provides President Trump with the perfect opportunity for economic restructuring on a global scale.
Before Donald Trump was elected President, the global economy was built on the principles of Richard Nixon. In 1979, the US observed that relations between the Soviet Union and Communist China were at an all-time low. Then US President Richard Nixon to seized upon the rift as an opportunity: economically ally with China to "triangulate" against the Soviet Union. Within ten years of implementing this strategy, the Soviet Union went bankrupt.
Ever since, Communist China has fed off the western economic system like a vampire. Although the vast majority of Chinese companies are privately owned, the Chinese Communist Party still has overall strategic control. Its economic rise, too, is largely due to the economic trading surpluses it has enjoyed over its US-allied trading partners.
But after Donald Trump became President, the United States started calling out China on its unfair trading practices and encouraged US allies to do the same. As the US economy became stronger, the Chinese economy became weaker, forcing it into its worst recession since 1979. This might have been the cause for the Chinese Communist Party turning a blind eye to the Coronavirus pandemic, allowing it to spread worldwide.
But should Donald Trump be reelected November this year, China's economic woes would get much worse. Not only would President Trump decouple the US economy from China's - he would "triangulate" US economics with Russia. Then the Second Cold War would really heat up.
Today, Russia's major partners China, Iran and Syria are all under US sanctions, and if President Trump is reelected, Chinese dominance over Iran at Russia's expense would be secured. In a new strategic partnership, China and Iran would have have a vested interest in seeing the US return to Afghanistan after temporary withdrawal and would also a vested interest in propelling Hezbollah into power in Lebanon.
But in neighbouring Syria and in Afghanistan, Russia and the US have strategic partners in common: respectively Turkey and India. Although neither country is particularly democratic, they each serve as an unofficial link between Russia and the US and might see deals between the two larger powers mediated in exchange for a loosening of US sanctions on Russia.
If President Trump reaches a second term, he would want to withdraw from Syria - but only if Iran and Hezbollah also withdraw. Since China would dominate Iran at Russia's expense, it makes sense that Russia would be allowed by China and the US to dominate Syria at Iran's expense. The trade-off for Russian consolidation in Syria would be China and Iran consolidating control over Lebanon, something the US would disapprove of but Russia could hardly influence.
For Afghanistan, if China and Iran foment instability there and fund the Taliban to march on Kabul, the collective interests of India, Russia and the United States would be threatened. This might see not only a reentry of the US but also of the US-led Indo-Pacific partners into Afghanistan, to send a clear warning to China and to Iran. Additionally, the Indo-Pacific partners might seek a further partnership with Russia, much as Turkey has a partnership with Russia in Syria and Libya. This would challenge Chinese and Iranian influence in Afghanistan as never before.
However, larger agreement between Russia and the US would not be limited to a trade deal, to Afghanistan and Syria: additionally, the two larger powers would have to reach a compromise on Ukraine. The US might agree to recognize Russian control of the Crimea and agree to have no opinion on the governance of Ukraine, effectively isolating Ukraine as Taiwan was isolated through the One China Policy. In this scenario, a Ukrainian alternative to the Taiwan relations act could be flouted by US Congress, to keep Russia away from meddling further in Ukraine but to establish precedent for an easing of relations and trade.
In the past, President Trump was open to doing a trade deal with China - but the Covid-19 pandemic changed his mind. In the near future, a trade deal between the United States and Russia might see triangulation in reverse: instead of the high tensions between Russia and the US and compromise on China, a second term of the Trump Administration would see high tensions with China, yet peace at last between Russia and America.
