Monday 11 September 2017

With Assad victory certain, Israel's anxieties are growing



For the world, peace in Syria is desirable. For Israel, Syrian peace is a nightmare turned reality.

Like much of the world, Israel was anticipating the fall of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad early in the Syrian civil war. As the conflict continued, Israel continued to condemn the Assad Government and called for rebels to take control of the country. At times Syrian rebels have been treated in Israeli hospitals. At other times, ISIS had been advocated by Israelis as a more desirable neighbour than the Syrian Government.

Like Saudi Arabia, Israel is threatened by the rise of Iran in the region. The war on ISIS has largely benefit the Iran-allied Iraqi government and the Syrian Government, though for both Israel and Saudi Arabia, the recovery of the Syrian Government is the worse predicament. The revival of Bashar Al-Assad means that Hezbollah will continue to be funded, Hamas will continue having dominant support from Iran and Syria and, unlike Iraq, Syria will remain staunchly anti-Israel and anti-American at any cost.

Yet as the Syrian rebels continue to be weakened, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are turning to the Kurds as new proxies. The Kurds remain largely autonomous in both Iraq and Syria, and thus could, theoretically, offer a counterbalance to Iran in the Middle-East. However, all of the Kurds' neighbours are anti-Kurdistan: Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey. In Syria, extensive financial aid would be needed for the Kurds to defend themselves from Assad's Government. In Iraq, the chances are better for the Kurds to break off, as the Iraqi government is the weaker link.

Though Benyamin Netanyahu and other Israelis are anxious about the coming end of the Syrian civil war, perspective is needed here. While the Kurds might succeed in breaking off from Iraq and Syria to provide Israel with a new ally, there are other gains for Israel in recent years which should not go unnoticed. Jordan, an Israeli ally, remains stable in spite of neighbouring conflict; Sisi, the President of Egypt, is working with Israel to fight ISIS; Haftar Al-Khalifa, strongman of Libya, is also strengthening ties with Israel. And the Gulf states, set to be plagued by instability, are deepening their ties with Israel as a buffer to the threat of Iran.

But where Israel should look for expansion in ties with Middle-East countries is in Iraq. Iraq is a shadow of its former strength, but it can still act as a front line in the war against Iran. Many Iraqis are sick and tired of Iranian influence in their country, and the country is on the edge of an intra-Shi'ite conflict. Like Saudi Arabia, Israel would do well to work at - very secretly - pursuing closer ties with Iraq to quash an Iranian presence there.

Israel should, however, stop endorsing terror organizations like ISIS and Al-Qaeda as a better alternative to Iran. Such Israeli policy is most unwise and has alienated parts of the civilized world from them.