Given the Chinese malevolence during the Coronavirus pandemic and the Hong Kong protests, it is most urgent that President Donald Trump strikes a deal with Vladimir Putin, strategically withdraws from Europe and redeploys forces to Taiwan and the Pacific.
As with Britain during the Second World War, the United States is no longer able to defeat her enemies everywhere.
During the Second World War, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was forced into prioritizing the Battles for the Mediterranean and the Atlantic over the growing Japanese threat in the Pacific. While it is possible that Nazi Germany could have been defeated by the Soviet Union alone, what is undeniable is that Churchill's decision to engage Nazi Germany at the expense of Japan meant that Hitler - and, by extension, the Holocaust - was stopped in 1945 rather than years later. Without Winston Churchill, the Nazis might have exterminated all of European Jewry.
Today, US President Donald Trump finds himself in a position rather similar to that of Churchill. The United States no longer has the ability to wage war on all fronts as it had during the Cold War, and is finding itself increasingly isolated from its European partners. Recently, European allies deserted the United States by abstaining from extending the weapons ban on Iran, which meant China and Russia were able to veto the extension unopposed.
Today, Europe is no longer the centre of global geostrategy. The iron curtain is gone; the Soviet Union is no more and Vladimir Putin's Russia, although dangerous, is by far the lesser threat compared with Xi Jinping's Communist China. It is imperative that the United States withdraw at least some of her forces from Europe, to better prioritize the crucial battles for influence which will undoubtedly be fought in the Pacific and in the Middle-East.
The Middle-East is on fire. US withdrawal from Middle-Eastern countries is risky and problematic, as was demonstrated when Barrack Obama withdrew from Iraq only to return three years later in 2014. While the United States will probably withdraw from Afghanistan over the next year, in all likelihood forces will be redeployed to Afghanistan before the end of President Trump's second term.
Meanwhile China is looking to increase its influence in the Middle-East. A draft of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran was leaked recently to the international press. This draft gives the world an idea of what is likely to happen should - as is likely - Donald Trump be reelected President. If Donald Trump is reelected, China will put pressure on the United States' interests in the Middle-East in addition to the Pacific.
Should the US be forced into remaining in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would put strain on its overall position in the Middle-East. Should Saudi Arabia erupt in instability (as looks increasingly likely), the United States would be able to do little in the way of military support. If Iran and the US go to war, the war would have to be limited to operations against Iran-backed forces in the Arabian Gulf, in Iraq and/or in Afghanistan. If China and Iran plot a coup in Lebanon which lands Hezbollah in power, as also appears likely, the United States would be unlikely to send troops there.
Of all the possible conflicts the United States might engage in, Taiwan is the most critical of them all. The Chinese Communist Party has long desired to invade Taiwan and unite it to mainland China. Should China succeed in this (as, unless the United States makes alternative security arrangements, looks likely) the balance of the Asia Pacific would be irrevocably tipped in China's favour. The future of Asia and the United States depends on the defense of Taiwan.
Because the loss of Taiwan would be the tipping point for the power struggle in Asia, it is imperative that the United States looks again at its geostrategic position. It is unlikely to be able to disengage from Iraq or Afghanistan in the long-term - but approximately 320,000 American troops are based in Europe. If half of these were withdrawn from Europe and instead sent to Taiwan, Japan and the South China Sea, Asia's future would be secured until the conclusion of the Second Cold War.
But such a sizable US withdrawal from Europe is impossible without dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Granting Russia concessions on Syria, Crimea and sanctions in exchange for a US troop withdrawal would see tensions on the European front ease significantly. The last 40 years have seen the United States compromise with China to defeat the Soviet Union and Russia. It is now time for the United States to compromise with Russia in order to defeat the Chinese Communist Party, to prevent China from remaining the enormous threat to the United States' homeland that it is today.
