Trump Is President. What's Next?

Well, Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States of America. What stands as next for the Middle-East?


It would be naive to think that a Trump Presidency would not be at least slightly hawkish. The Obama Administration is currently involved in 3 major conflicts: the Iraqi-Syrian War on ISIS, the Afghan War and the Libyan War on ISIS. I wish to provide the likely direction for each of them.

1) the Iraqi-Syrian War on ISIS

It will be swift and quick. In Syria, Trump will either cooperate with Russia or withdraw from Syria and let Russia defeat ISIS. The first seems more likely, as Trump would likely want himself seen as making "great deals," and one of those great deals would be to destroy ISIS in Syria and restore better relations with Russia. Both of these objectives would be achieved with Trump's plan: Assad's army is the largest capable fighting force against ISIS, and Russia, Syria and Trump would all benefit from an ISIS defeat at the hands of Assad.

In Iraq, the fight may be equally swift, but how Trump acts after defeating ISIS in Iraq will be telling. Trump's idea for "safe zones" in Syria funded by Turkey and the Gulf States is a long shot - a very long shot. However, safe zones in Iraq would be something that Turkey and the Gulf States would be - perhaps - more comfortable with.


Unless incredibly hawkish, Trump is likely to use some "soft-power" policies to increase Iraq's stability. One such would be the increased trade of oil between Iraq and America - such increased trade could benefit both Iraq's economy and America's. Trump has talked about "taking Iraqi oil," but in Trump language that means increasing oil trade with Iraq. He has also said he would not take Saudi oil if they refused to comply with his ISIS' strategy. Trump's "soft power" Iraqi oil policy would also benefit America should Saudi Arabia destabilize. (More about the destabilization of Saudi Arabia later).

If not "soft-power" policies, Trump might arrange for a Turkish guardianship of Iraq should the country destabilize again. This would mean that the Trump Administration would not have to return to Iraq, and Turkey would be sucked into the conflict instead.

2) the Afghan War

Like Obama in Iraq, Trump seems likely to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. This might be preceded by a solid smashing of the Taliban before they go, but other than that, there is no immediate desire to recreate the political fabric of Afghanistan for the third time in 40 years.

And, like Iraq, this would cause a massive problem of instability for Afghanistan within 3 - 5 years of American withdrawal. Perhaps a resurgent Taliban would emerge - perhaps ISIS - or perhaps, as I believe most likely, something even worse.

This would give Trump a chance to return to Afghanistan and smash out whatever terrorist organisation had taken root in the country, but to do so from only the skies, as Obama did in Iraq. With more American public support for the war, he would likely then try and work out how to install a dictator in Afghanistan, as dictatorship is the only likely alternative to more terrorism growing in the region.

3) the Libyan War on ISIS

In the beginning, Trump would not do a lot - he would want to see how his plan to defeat ISIS plays out in Syria and Iraq first. Yet Trump would work out, rather quickly, that Haftar Al-Khalifa is his best shot at a stable Libya. He would then use Al-Khalifa to flatten ISIS in the region, as well as the pockets of Islamist militias who are of the same mind as ISIS.

Like Iraq, Trump would likely increase oil production from Libya, to get America further and further away from Saudi oil. That, coupled together with a dictatorship under Haftar Al-Khalifa, gives Trump one of the best shots at an "American first" military victory.


I would also like to take the time to mention Yemen and Saudi Arabia, briefly.

4) Yemen.

It seems unlikely Trump would get involved in the Yemeni-Saudi conflict at all, save do what the Obama Administration is doing already: supply arms to Saudi Arabia in bombing Yemenis.

Of course this would only increase Al-Qaeda's power in Yemen. Trump may turn a blind eye to the Yemeni conflict for a time as he deals with ISIS, getting America out of Afghanistan and instability in Libya, but eventually Al-Qaeda will become too strong in Yemen to ignore.

This, so it seems to me, would lead Trump not to directly fight in Yemen, but to get another world power involved in fighting this sensitive war. Perhaps Russia, perhaps Britain - but it would be a war fought against Al-Qaeda, benefitting the Houthis and outraging Saudi Arabia.

5) Saudi Arabia

Trump's policies are nothing short of disastrous for Saudi Arabia. If Trump does as he has said he would, Syria would remain an ally of Iran, Iraqi-American relations would increase (benefitting the Shi'ite government in Iraq - remember Saudi is Sunni and Sunnis don't like Shi'ites) and with both Libya and Iraq supplying America with oil - together with America's own fracking, oil industries going up under a Trump Administration - Saudi economy would look less and less certain, as America would have far less need for cheap Saudi oil.

(Trump's Afghanistan has a silver lining for Saudi Arabia, as does Trump's non-intervention in Yemen, but these are lesser conflicts compared to Syria and Iraq in particular, both which Saudi would gain nothing from.)

This would make it perfect for internal explosion and chaos. With terrorism decreased in Iraq, Syria and Libya as a result of Trump policy, the increase would happen elsewhere: namely Yemen, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia.

It is hard to know what a Trump Administration would do were civil war to break out between terrorists and Saudis. On the one hand, a terrorist takeover of Saudi Arabia would legitimize Trump's war on terror in one way, increase relations between many Arab countries and Israel (as these countries would look for security against a terrorist-controlled Saudi Arabia), and on the other hand, having Mecca and Medina in the hand of terrorists explodes legitimacy for them, which is a huge blow to the war on terror in another way.

The likely idea is that Trump would keep the war going as long as possible between Saudi Arabia and the terrorists, as Obama did in Syria.



Anyway, only one way to know for certain: watch as the drama unfolds in 3 months' time.