Yemen: the next Islamic State

Taken from the 21st of August, 2015

For the past 5 months, Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition against rebels in Yemen, the Houthis, in the attempt to restore the recognized President of Yemen, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, to power.  In the subsequent chaos of the Yemeni Civil War, there has been one group gaining momentum at the expense of both Hadi’s forces and the Shi’ite Houthi rebels.

And it isn’t ISIS.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is gaining most out of the chaos of the Yemeni civil war. Like ISIS, which was born out of the Iraq War, AQAP is building its momentum as a direct result of Saudi airstrikes on the Houthi rebels. And like ISIS, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is underestimated by the group utilizing them.

Though not directly supported by the United States, ISIS did help achieve America’s objectives in Syria by weakening the Assad government and, until the group invaded Iraq, was mostly left alone by the United States. The terror group, which has since taken over half of Syria and over a quarter of Iraq, claims to be a Caliphate, owing the allegiance of all Muslims, and asks all Muslims to pledge allegiance to the self-proclaimed Caliph, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

Likewise, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has not been directly supported through Saudi intervention in the Yemeni Civil War. Yet the result of Saudi’s airstrikes has been the emergence of AQAP as a legitimate player for control of Yemen.

It is unlikely that AQAP will attempt to establish a Caliphate as ISIS has done. The reason for this is that the tribes AQAP are working with have a different political agenda. ISIS was born out of an allegiance with Iraqi Ba’ath Party militants disenfranchised with America’s vision for a democratic Iraq. The Iraqi Ba’ath Party has sought to create unity across different countries, which coincides with ISIS’ aims in establishing a caliphate.

In Yemen, the largest non-governmental force pitted against the Houthis is the Southern Movement. The Southern Movement seeks to break unity with Northern Yemen and return Yemen to two states. As of now, Hadi’s forces and the Southern Movement are working together to defeat the Houthis. However, once the Houthis are no longer a threat to Southern Yemen, the Southern Movement is likely to fight the Hadi government for independence. Alone, it is unlikely the Southern Movement would succeed. However, were AQAP to join the Southern Movement on their endeavour, independence would become more likely. AQAP would, subsequently, establish a vice grip over the region, and cause the Southern Movement to be indebted to the group.

ISIS, on the other hand, is unlikely to develop much presence in Yemen. They will likely continue their bombings of Zaidi mosques in Yemen, and possibly establish a temporary foothold in Sunni Northern Yemen.

But AQAP is likely to desire to expand its influence, and there is a clever way in which AQAP could do this while still supporting the Southern Movement:

AQAP could claim parts of Sunni Northern Yemen as belonging to Southern Yemen.

Along the west coast of Northern Yemen there are a number of Sunni regions which could be coaxed to the side of both the Southern Movement and AQAP. This could mean the end not only of Yemen as a whole, but of any chance of Houthi or Hadi dominance in the foreseeable future, which is exactly what AQAP wants.

In this case, AQAP would not even need to invade Sana’a to control Yemen; all they would need would be to take the Sunni regions from Northern Yemen to weaken Hadi and Houthi influence. Then, for the first time in many years, Southern Yemen would prevail as stronger than Northern Yemen.

The unfortunate thing is that, like ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and like the Taliban in Afghanistan, America is unlikely to realise the extent of the threat AQAP poses until it is too late. Though marked as the most active of the Al-Qaeda franchises in its attacks on the West, the group may be heading for attacks in a completely different region.

Saudi Arabia is a country despised by both ISIS and Al-Qaeda for its alliance with America and its control of the holy cities Mecca and Medina. As ISIS grows stronger in Syria and Iraq, it is likely to turn more of its attention to Saudi Arabia. If ISIS invades Saudi Arabia from the north, AQAP might take advantage of the instability and launch an invasion from the south. If that happens, there will be little America can do to save the region.