Yemen: the next Islamic State 2017 UPDATE

Original article written on 21st of August, 2015

First published on blogger.com on 20th of November 2016

Original article can be found here:

http://jwaverfpolicy.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/yemen-next-islamic-state.html

Since 21st of April 2015, Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition against Zaidi rebels in Yemen, the Houthis, in an attempt to restore the recognized President of Yemen, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, to power.  In the subsequent chaos of the Yemen War, there has been one group gaining momentum at the expense of both President Hadi and the Zaidi Houthi rebels.

And it isn’t ISIS.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is gaining most out of the chaos of Saudi Arabia's Yemen war. Like ISIS, which was born out of the Iraq War (2003) and built up in the Syrian Civil War (2011), AQAP is building its momentum as a direct result of Saudi intervention. And like ISIS, AQAP is underestimated by the group utilizing them.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, though dangerous, is perceived by Saudi Arabia as the 'lesser of two evils' against the Houthis and thus receives aid to fight the Zaidi rebels. AQAP has since emerged as a legitimate player for control of Yemen.

It is unlikely that AQAP would attempt to establish a Caliphate as ISIS has done. The reason for this is that the tribes working with the group have a different political agenda. ISIS was born out of an alliance with Iraqi Ba’ath Party militants disenfranchised with America’s vision for a democratic Iraq. The Iraqi Ba’ath Party has sought to create unity across different countries, which coincides with ISIS’ aim in establishing a caliphate.

The tribes which back AQAP are interested in seeing Southern Yemen looked after more than it was under the previous dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Some groups, like the Southern Movement, want Southern Yemen to break away from Northern Yemen altogether. Other groups, like the tribes allied to President Hadi, would rather see Southern Yemen become more prominent in politics.

AQAP, like ISIS before it, is likely to swallow the smaller groups with different agendas, such as the Southern Movement, the tribes which back President Hadi and Sunni tribes currently under the Houthis, to establish an Islamic Emirate across as much of Yemen as possible, with the southerners on top.

AQAP has been the most effective fighting force against the Houthis. President Hadi is likely to let AQAP gain strongholds in northern Yemen at the expense of the Houthis and deal with the fallout later. Unfortunately, should Houthi-allied Sunni tribes swap allegiance to Al-Qaeda, AQAP would become far more powerful than the current Yemeni President.

The northern Yemeni tribes would only leave the Houthi alliance if they had no other option. If supporting Al-Qaeda or President Hadi become the choices for the northern Yemeni tribes, they would overwhelmingly choose Al-Qaeda and subsequently wage war on the Hadi government.

Northern Yemen hates President Hadi more than Al-Qaeda.

Though AQAP consider Shi'ites (and subsequently Zaidis) as heretics, they believe, as does the rest of Al-Qaeda, that focusing on a Sunni-Shi'ite conflict is counter-productive. This means Zaidi tribes could be won over by AQAP to - implicitly - support the Al-Qaeda war against the Hadi government.

The unfortunate thing is that America is unlikely to realize the extent of the threat AQAP poses until it is too late. Though marked as the most active of the Al-Qaeda franchises in its attacks on the West, the group is headed for attacks in a completely different region.

Saudi Arabia is a country despised by both ISIS and Al-Qaeda for its alliance with America and its control of the holy cities Mecca and Medina. Should AQAP defeat the Houthis, the power held by Al-Qaeda would force a confrontation between Saudi Arabia and AQAP, first through Saudi's proxy, President Hadi, then against Saudi Arabia itself.

Should this occur, there would be nothing America could do to save the Arabian Gulf from civil war.