Israel's allies in the Middle-East under Trump

I have predicted some sizable outcomes for the future of the Middle-East. I have predicted that Syria will stabilize under President Bashar Al-Assad; I have predicted Iraq will become stable under Trump's leadership, that Iraq will become the main Arab oil exporter; I have predicted Libya will stabilize under Haftar Al-Khalifa with American and Russian support; I have predicted that, should Trump get a second term, Afghanistan will stabilize under an anti-Iranian dictator.

In light of all this, where would Israel's main Arab allies be? My thoughts:

1) Jordan. The Hashemi ruling elite in Jordan has been backed into a corner by the West. After world war 1, the West has removed the Iraqi and Hijazi kingdoms from the Hashmites and replaced them with dictators and the Saudi royal family in each region respectively. Because of this, King Abdullah of Jordan has been forced into the difficult position of dealing with the largest border with Israel, while maintaining positive relations with Palestine, Palestinians in Jordan, ethnic Jordanians, the entire Middle-East and America.

True to being a Hashemi, King Abdullah of Jordan has managed to beautifully balance all of these requirements and has kept relations with Israel cordial. They remain in good relations while Jordan also maintains good relations with Palestine.

2) Egypt. Egypt has had a history of defeat at the hands of Israel during the 6-day war, while also signing peace agreements under Mubarak, the previous dictator of Egypt. With Islamism on the rise, Abdul Feteh As-Sisi is desperate for anti-Islamist allies, including Israel. Trump has called for not only an alliance but a friendship with Sisi, and this, together with strong ties to Israel, should see relations improve strongly between the three countries.

Currently, relations between Egypt and Israel are good; relations between Palestine and Egypt have turned sour. Sisi has done this to contrast from Mohammed Morsi, the last President of Egypt, who was from the Muslim Brotherhood and loved Palestine and Iran. Sisi likes neither country, and seems intent on not only maintaining but increasing good relations with Israel. This would be why Trump has extended such a warm invitation of friendship to Egypt under Sisi.

3) Saudi Arabia. While relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are at an all-time high, I do not expect this to last at all. This is not because Iran will no longer be a regional threat, but rather because Mohammed Bin Salman is likely to increase relations with Israel to an unbearable point for the Saudi people. Like Iran in 1979, Saudi Arabia runs the risk of revolution should Mohammed Bin Salman work towards not only strong relations with Israel - which Saudi currently enjoys - but more public relations with Israel.

So while in the short-term relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be maintained and also increase, in the long-term Saudi Arabia is likely to turn violently anti-Israel. Whether this surfaces in an ISIS takeover of the country, or an Al-Qaeda takeover, or a Muslim Brotherhood revolution, or a more conservative branch of the Saudi royal family taking control, is irrelevant: relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are likely to deteriorate.

4) Iraq. Currently relations between Iraq and Israel are terrible. Like under Saddam Hussein, the current Iraqi government has no desire to improve relations with Israel.

However, a revolution in Saudi Arabia would likely change all that. While needing security from Iran and America - in an attempt to perhaps show America that Iraq is not dominated by Iran - secret efforts to increase cooperation with Israel might be implemented. This was how Saudi Arabia began its relations with Israel - Iraq would likely do the same should Saudi Arabia implode.


These are the four countries which I believe are worth observing regarding Israel. Watch this space!