ISIS finished in Sirte but not in Libya

 NOTE: for those who do not know, Libya was a functioning state - one of the best in Africa - under Muammar Al-Gidaffi. At the height of the Arab Spring, Barrack Obama - with much insistence from neo-con hawk Hillary Clinton - authorised a "no-fly-zone" in Libya. The result of this was that Gidaffi was deposed by Libyan militias and the country has since slid into utter chaos, threatening stability in Egypt, Tunisia, Niger and Chad.

Currently there is a civil war in Libya, which began at approximately the same time as the Iraqi-Syrian war in 2014. Two rival governments are fighting for contol - the government based in Tripoli is a loose band of militias, while the government in Tobruk are the remnants of Gidaffi's government. Exploiting this war was ISIS, which controlled the city of Derna for a few months, before relocating to Gidaffi's hometown in Sirte.

The chaos and instability in Libya is the result of the "no-fly-zone" authorised by Clinton and Obama. Keep that in mind the next time you hear Hillary Clinton use that term regarding Syria.



Barrack Obama has authorised the use of airstrikes against ISIS' stronghold in Sirte, with the aid of militias from rival city Misrata. ISIS has controlled the city for approximately 18 months, but is likely to be driven out of the city.

While no longer in control of any physical territory, ISIS is very unlikely to be driven from the country - only to change strategy.

After ISIS - then Al-Qaeda in Iraq - was driven out of Fallujah and other Iraqi cities in 2006 - as a result of the Anbar Awakening - the organisation merely shifted its strategy from establishing an Islamic State to destabilizing the region through numerous suicide bombings. It was true: Sunni Iraqis despised ISIS for the next few years, but the result of the destabilizing tactic by ISIS was that they returned even more powerfully in 2014, 8 years later.

The other thing to note about ISIS' strategy in Iraq was that they took advantage of the chaos in nearby Syria. Under the guise of Jabhat Al-Nusra - Al-Qaeda in Syria - ISIS established control of much territory in eastern and northern Syria. This battle experience was essential in the lightning-fast offensive against the Iraqi Government in 2014.

ISIS is in Libya to stay, perhaps not as a ruler of territory but as a destabilizer. ISIS is close to losing its Caliphate in Iraq - recent developments suggest Iraqi Sunnis may be more willing to work with Iraqi Shi'ites than with ISIS, uniting central and southern Iraq to each other.

Such a move would be a massive and potentially long-term blow for the group in Iraq, but Libya is still a centre of chaos which ISIS can take advantage of. The small militias fighting one another is likely to breed much frustration for Libyans - especially their youth - and the result of this may be, in the next few years, a rapid increase of support for ISIS.

One country not talked about is post-Arab Spring Tunisia. Interestingly, the majority of ISIS fighters comes not from countries sharing their ideology - such as Saudi Arabia - but Tunisia. These fighters are coming home. They are angry with their government, angry with the erosion of their Arabic culture and the majority of their youth are unemployed.

Tunisia seems ready for civil war. Given the amount of fighters from Tunisia, ISIS would be the likely benefactor of such a war, to the detriment of Arab democracy and Libya.

Tunisia's south is more conservative than its north. Because of this, ISIS would be able to maintain a stronghold in the south and from there push into Libya.

Such seems the future of Libya: destined for more chaos and more ISIS. There is nothing the West can do, only wait to pick up the remnants of the country and piece them back together, as they are doing in Iraq.