Iran is winning its proxy wars, Ikhwan and Salafis fight for the remnants

In Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Iran has been winning its proxy wars.

With the continued destruction of ISIS in Iraq, Shi'ite militias Hashd Ash-Sha'abi are consolidating control of Sunni or mixed areas in Iraq. The battle for Mosul has left the Iraqi Army - comprised of Sunnis and Shi'ites - decimated, so the Iraqi Government will be forced to rely more extensively on Hashd Ash-Sha'abi. Since the militias are fuelled by Islamic Shi'ism, it is not hard to see how Iranian dominance in Iraq is increasing.

The Syrian Arab Army is regaining control of the eastern half of Syria in the provinces of Aleppo, Homs, Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor. ISIS is steadily losing ground, is unable to gain the city of Deir Ez-Zor as its new capital, and is losing dozens of soldiers in every assault by the Syrian Arab Army. This, together with the victory over the cities of Aleppo and Homs, assures that Bashar Al-Assad will not only control western Syria, but control southern and eastern Syria as well.

In Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition has so far failed to dislodge the Houthis from northern Yemen - in fact, the Houthis are currently winning the war against them. With the destruction of ISIS in Syria and Iraq looming, Saudi Arabia may be forced to augment its funding for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in the hope of dislodging the Houthis from Yemen - however such increased funding would hardly sit well with the Trump Administration and force other world powers, such as Russia, to step in to end the conflict in favour of the Houthis.

With Iraq, Syria and Yemen all set to benefit Iran's political standing in the region, the Salafi worldview - championed by Saudi Arabia - and the Ikhwan worldview - championed by Qatar and Turkey - are fighting over the remains of strategic influence. These will be discussed in more detail below:

1) Egypt

The ousting of Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi (2013) has meant that Abdul Feteh As-Sisi has gained control of Egypt and is cracking down hard on support for the Ikhwan, or Muslim Brotherhood. Though Sisi himself is not a Salafi, he is supported by Saudi Arabia and UAE (Dubai) so as to deny the Ikhwan a safe haven in the largest Arab country. The Ikhwan countries of Qatar and Turkey, correspondingly, have been funneling funds to Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula through Hamas, to weaken the Sisi government and enable the Muslim Brotherhood to get stronger once again.

2) Libya

As a result of the overthrow of Libyan President Qaddafi, two governments have established themselves in Libya: the Tobruk-based government, assisted by strongman Haftar Al-Khalifa and the Tripoli Government of National Accord, whose tribes overwhelmingly support the Muslim Brotherhood. Again, a proxy-war between the Salafis and the Ikhwan is being played out here.

Though Haftar Al-Khalifa and the Tobruk-based government are not Salafi, they are seeking to quash political Islam, and the Ikhwan in Libya are their priority target, like for President Sisi in Egypt. So far, the Tobruk government (backed by Saudi Arabia) has the upper hand, because its forces are united and the Tripoli-based government (backed by Qatar and Turkey) is experiencing too much infighting. The Tobruk government also has the advantage in Russian support, whereas the Tripoli government does not have the unilateral backing of a superpower.

3) Syria and Iraq

The victory of Iran against ISIS in Syria and Iraq has forced Saudi Arabia and the Ikhwan to pick new sides. The Ikhwan, led by Turkey, have been forced by Russia into supporting peace in Syria with Bashar Al-Assad as its President. This has been agreed to with an implicit understanding that Turkey would be able to later weaken Kurdish influence in Syria.

However, with Salafi frustration at Iranian dominance looming, Saudi Arabia and UAE have been sending more funds to the Syrian Kurds. Though Kurds do not share the Salafi principles, like the Torbuk government in Libya and President Sisi in Egypt, the Kurds are a valuable proxy in the fight against Iran. Saudi Arabia has also been signalling support Iraqi Kurds in their referendum for independence.

Should the Kurds in Syria and Iraq reach independence, Iran would be threatened from within by its own Kurdish population, which is perhaps what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman means by "bringing the fight to Iran". Rather than a direct confrontation - which is impossible for Saudi Arabia, given they are currently fighting Yemen - enabling the Kurds in Syria and Iraq to create their own autonomous region would be a blow to Iran of enormous proportions.

Yet this would also greatly anger Turkey, which leads to the current Gulf crisis with Qatar.

4) Qatar

Though Saudi Arabia is experiencing political victories over its Ikhwan counterparts in Egypt and Libya, it has grown increasingly frustrated with Qatar's Ikhwan support in Egypt and Libya, its support for Shi'ite groups and serving as a satellite broadcaster of the Ikhwan agenda with Al-Jazeera. Qatar and Turkey both have strong relations with Iran, and this threatens Saudi Arabia's Salafi ideology enormously, which prefers war between Sunnis and Shi'ites over strategic peace which the Ikhwan supports.

(Interestingly, Al-Qaeda also shares this Ikhwan principle of not deliberately stirring a Shi'ite-Sunni war and instead focusing on attacking the west and Israel. ISIS, on the other hand, shares the Saudi desire to wage a war on the Shi'ites by the larger Sunni population.)

In the blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia and her allies against Qatar, Iran and Turkey have rushed to Qatar's aid, which has meant that Turkish-Saudi relations are deteriorating. This means that Saudi Arabia is no longer able to be hindered by Turkey in potential support for the Kurds. This has meant that Saudi is likely to fund the Kurds in Syria and Iraq and, in the future, in Turkey and Iran as well, to decrease Iranian/Ikwhani dominance in the region.



What is really happening is that Iran has largely won the conflicts of Iraq and Syria and is very likely to win in Yemen. The Ikhwan and Salafis are no longer in a position to challenge Iranian dominance in the Middle-East through their ideologies, so instead must use other proxies to defeat one another.

Another proxy war within Islam is being waged. Rather than the Sunni-Shi'ite war of Iraq, this war is a Sunni war between the Salafis and the Ikhwan, and the victor will determine the future direction of political Sunni Islam.