Saturday, 10 June 2017

How the Afghan War stopped Syrian chaos



Obama withdrew from Iraq in 2011, saying that Iraq's future was now in the hands of its people. At the same time, Obama overthrew Libyan President Gidaffi in a limited air strike campaign, endorsed the Arab Spring and sent Libyan National Army weapons to Syria to help fund the rebels - all the while refusing a peace agreement in Syria until Bashar Al-Assad had stepped aside.

The following should be stated more often: It is more important to win the old wars than to start new ones. It is much easier to start a war than to win a war. Obama himself showed a preference for starting wars over winning wars.

That said, while Obama's withdrawal from Iraq gave him more leeway in interfering during the Arab Spring, he campaigned on fighting the "good war" in Afghanistan. The focus and financial spending on the Afghan War meant that Obama was too invested in continuing said "good war" to really commit in Libya or Syria. In Libya, he limited his airstrikes to overthrowing Libyan President Gidaffi. In Syria, Obama only funded the Syrian rebels and never installed a no-fly-zone to depose Assad, though in 2013 he came dangerously close to doing so.

Trump is also handicapped by the Afghan War and unable to really commit to a ground war in Syria. Like Obama before him, Trump is not as interested in overthrowing Assad as he is in defeating ISIS. Though striking Syria after the alleged chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun, Trump has stated that the US is not going into Syria.

Many of the same voices that scream for the US to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan also scream for the overthrow of the Syrian Government. Neither Trump nor Obama listened to said voices completely, and as a result both committed themselves to fighting the old war in Afghanistan rather than starting a new one in Syria.

Yet unlike Obama, whose policy of withdrawal from Iraq was almost repeated in Afghanistan, Trump is planning to win the Afghan War and to stay in Iraq, which will prevent him from interfering militarily to the same extent Obama had during his Presidency. Trump plans on letting Russia absorb Obama's Syrian and Libyan conflicts, to make sure that, in US foreign policy, Obama's name is forgotten and Trump's name is remembered.

The Afghan War, stated by so many as being a wasted mission, has actually succeeded in a different mission entirely: stopping the US military industrial complex from making the chaos worse in Syria. Bashar Al-Assad is President of Syria to this day, in part, because of the Afghan War. And the world should be grateful for that.

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