Are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia about to ally with China?

Trump's plans for the Middle-East represent significant problems for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.


For Saudi Arabia, the shrinking of Sunni-dominance in Iraq and Syria by the Trump Administration represents an existential threat to the Saudi kingdom.

Trump willing to work with Bashar Al-Assad against ISIS in Syria is one thing, but Trump's plan to increase relations with Iraq is another, a policy which threatens to unhinge Saudi Arabia from the American sphere of influence.

There are two options for Saudi Arabia. One is increased relations with China - the other is increased relations with the European Union. And Saudi Arabia is likely to make the most of both opportunities.

The European Union is from a political sphere of influence that runs counter to the 'New Nationalism' of Putin, Trump and Brexit. To ally more closely with the European Union makes logical sense for Saudi Arabia, as the European Union's views of immigration, Assad and Iran are not dissimilar with the conservative kingdom's own views.

China, though not a fan of Islamism, would share benefit from allying more closely with Saudi Arabia regarding oil. With Trump set to 'take their [Iraqi] oil,' (namely increase American oil relations with Iraq) previous oil deals between China and Iraq would be decreased substantially. Previous oil deals between America and Saudi Arabia would also be decreased substantially.

While Iran would provide some oil, it would not be enough for the gigantic Asian power. China would perhaps be able to move into America's shoes in Saudi Arabia, dominating much of the Arabian Gulf and being the largest importer of Saudi oil.

China, like Russia and Trump's America, benefits from a stable Middle-East. With Russia set to stabilize Syria and Trump to stabilize Iraq, China would perhaps be able to show its force in stabilizing what is likely to be an unstable Saudi Arabia.

This likelihood is increased by a further strengthening of Pakistani-Chinese relations under a Trump Administration.


Pakistan has similar threats from Trump as Saudi Arabia, though not as immediate. Trump, likely to withdraw from Afghanistan after solidly smashing the Taliban in 2017, would after 3 - 5 years return to fix an even more unstable Afghanistan. The reason for Trump's likely withdrawal is two-fold: first, the war on terror has other priority battlegrounds which need dealing with first, namely in Syria, Iraq and Libya; second, American public opinion no longer supports the Afghan war as it once did.

If Trump can show he wishes to rebuild American infrastructure and deal successfully with the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Libya, American public is unlikely to hold him as accountable for a worse Afghanistan. Namely, if Afghanistan explodes before the 2020 elections, it would unlikely affect Trump's popularity should America, Syria, Iraq and Libya recover.

Trump has said that his problem with the Afghan War is mainly Pakistan over Afghanistan. Trumps sees that Pakistan deliberately destabilizes Afghanistan through an increase in terrorism there. Trump would likely have an unfavourable policy towards Pakistan in order to stabilize Afghanistan. This would likely drive Pakistan more fully into China's embrace.

Pakistani-Chinese relations are currently good, and are only set to improve under a Trump Administration. With Trump able to stabilize Afghanistan at the cost of Pakistan as an ally, it couldn't be a better deal for the American people, and couldn't be a better example of Trump foreign policy.