Is Mohammed Bin Salman pushing Saudi Arabia to civil war?

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is making some very quick decisions in Saudi Arabia.


Mohammed Bin Salman is the most influential figure in Saudi Arabia at this moment. His father, King Salman, has given him authority in a variety of roles, ministries, including Deputy Crown Prince after Mohammed Bin Nayef. Bin Salman has been modernizing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia very quickly, and this process has been sped up many times faster than efforts under the previous king, King Abdullah.


There are rumours suggesting that Mohammed Bin Salman has his eyes set on the kingship, wishing to jump over Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef and become the next King. This could ignite civil war.


The truth is that Mohammed Bin Salman only has the ability to eye the kingship because the late King Abdullah's previous command has been completely ignored. This command was that Salman be king, followed by then Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin, followed by whoever Salman would choose.


King Salman raised the hopes of the royal family when he chose Mohammed Bin Nayef as Deputy Crown Prince and kept Muqrin as Crown Prince. But when Crown Prince Muqrin “resigned” and Mohammed Bin Salman was made the new Deputy Crown Prince, this caused frustration in the Saudi royal family.


The Saudi royal family favours Mohammed Bin Nayef, the crown prince, over Mohammed Bin Salman. Bin Salman has skipped over many other more qualified candidates for Deputy Crown Prince because he is the son of the esteemed king. King Salman had the popularity of the Saudi royal family and earned his right to become king. His son, however, has not.


Mohammed Bin Salman is also the architect of Saudi’s war with Yemen, which has resulted in severe devastation in the impoverished country – the damage done to Yemen is comparable to damage done in the Iraq by American intervention. Northern Yemen is at risk of famine, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is stronger than ever – the Houthis remain undefeated and Hadi’s government remains one of the weakest forces in Yemen.


This is all exacerbated by Mohammed Bin Salman’s rapid push for modernization in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, without considering that Saudi Arabia was funded on the principle of spreading Salafiya – the most conservative and arguably truest form of Sunni Islam – across the world, and that for decades, the Saudi royal family has been able to balance internal westernization of the Kingdom with an external “Salafization”.


In modernizing the kingdom, ascending to the kingship and stopping the external "Salafization", Mohammed Bin Salman could be painted as a servant of America, ignoring the commands of God and bowing down to America’s wishes unashamedly.


Those in Saudi Arabia who are most frustrated with Mohammed Bin Salman are those older than him. He is young – very, very young by Saudi standards – to be in a position of such power. Many would not hesitate to wage war on him should he ascend to the kingship based on his age.


ISIS and Al-Qaeda would feed into this frustration. Al-Qaeda’s base nearest to the Kingdom is, ironically, in Yemen – Mohammed Bin Salman has been the architect of a war which has fuelled Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which is bent on destroying the modernization Mohammed Bin Salman stands for.


Worse still is ISIS. Though their territories across Iraq and Syria are shrinking, their replacement is Iranian-backed governments in Iraq and Syria, as well as Israeli-sympathetic Kurdish governments – this is only fuelling sectarian hatred on which ISIS thrives. Unfortunately for Mohammed Bin Salman, the population in the Eastern Province is mixed between Sunnis and Shi’ites, which makes it ideal territory for ISIS to infiltrate into - from Iraq - at the outbreak of a civil war.
 
With ISIS in Iraq and Al-Qaeda in Yemen competing for influence in Saudi Arabia at the outbreak of war, Mohammed Bin Salman would face external and internal threats from these groups and the Saudis that support them.